According to the results of a CBS poll conducted between May17-20, the chances of president Trump getting elected look pretty strong, as the poll found 71% of respondents felt the economy was in good shape. 94% of Republicans and 66% of Independents agreed, and even an astonishing 60% of Democrats echoed the sentiment.
Additionally, the poll found that as opposed to the beginning of 2018, when only 32% of respondents gave Trump credit for the strong economy, that figure has risen to 41%. Another 44% gave Trump partial credit for the strong economy.
In the last four months, the percentage of respondents who are optimistic about the stock market rose from 49% to 56%. 64% of respondents felt reasonably confident about their own financial situation.
In February, an op-ed in Forbes noted:
Trump has presided over the strongest economy in living memory. Unemployment is at record lows, inflation is nearly non-existent, and new jobs are being created at a startling pace. Anyone who studies presidential politics knows that strong economies are the most important factor driving support for the incumbent. While growth may moderate between now and election day, few economists expect a recession anytime soon.
Politico reported in March:
President Donald Trump has a low approval rating. He is engaging in bitter Twitter wars and facing metastasizing investigations. But if the election were held today, he’d likely ride to a second term in a huge landslide, according to multiple economic models with strong track records of picking presidential winners and losses. Credit a strong U.S. economy featuring low unemployment, rising wages and low gas prices — along with the historic advantage held by incumbent presidents.
At the beginning of May, Penn Live reported:
… The Democrats who are fighting to deny the Republican president a second term are beginning to acknowledge the weight of their challenge: Since World War II, no incumbent president has ever lost re-election in a growing economy. Even Trump’s critics are forced to admit the state of the economy could help him at the ballot box. “Relative to all the other terrible aspects of Trump’s record, the economy is more of an asset to him,” said Geoff Garin, a veteran pollster whose clients include Priorities USA, the most powerful super PAC in Democratic politics.
Also at the beginning of May, even CNN admitted:
And the reality is, voters don’t like to punish incumbents when the economy feels fine. Remove Gerald Ford, who was never elected in his own right and had just pardoned Richard Nixon, and you have only three incumbents who’ve lost reelection in the last 100 years. The other three each had an economic calamity they were dealing with. Herbert Hoover had the Great Depression. Jimmy Carter had a recession. George H.W. Bush had a recession.
If the great majority of Americans feel that the economy is strong going into the 2020 elections, all signs point to a big advantage for the president.